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Author
Date
2010-01Type
- Working Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
We investigate whether the KOF Barometer–a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute–can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for prediction of GDP growth rates. Even the earliest forecasts, made seven months ahead of the first official GDP estimate, allow us to predict GDP growth rates more accurately than forecasts based on an univariate autoregressive model. At every subsequent forecast round as new monthly releases of the KOF Barometer become available we observe a steady increase in forecast accuracy. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005975789Publication status
publishedJournal / series
KOF Working PapersVolume
Publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH ZurichSubject
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; ECONOMETRICS AND ECONOMETRIC MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHE PROGNOSE; BRUTTONATIONALEINKOMMEN; SCHWEIZ (MITTELEUROPA). SCHWEIZERISCHE EIDGENOSSENSCHAFT; SWITZERLAND (CENTRAL EUROPE). SWISS CONFEDERATION; ÖKONOMETRIE UND ÖKONOMETRISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); BUSINESS FORECASTSOrganisational unit
02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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